Donald Trump has sparked a gold rush, literally.

Deep under the streets of London in the vaults of the Bank of England a drama is unfolding that would rival fiction.

Hundreds of tonnes of gold are stored in these vaults — the second largest depository of physical gold in the world — but in recent weeks there has been a rush to move the precious metal out of its resting place to the United States.

Trump’s threatened trade war has thrown the precious metal market into turmoil. Traders, worried that tariffs will be imposed on gold, are anxious to get bars into the U.S. before the hammer drops. The fears have also caused the price of physical gold in London to fall and the price of gold futures in New York to rise, creating a rare opportunity for traders to make money off the difference by sending gold from London to New York.

Gold futures in New York have soared 11 per cent this year, hitting an high of US$2,935 an ounce, while the price of physical gold in London has dropped.

With gold worth substantially more in New York than in London, traders are scrambling in what the Wall Street Journal describes as the “biggest trans-Atlantic movement of physical bars in years.”

This has caused some commotion at the Bank of England. Deputy Governor Sir Dave Ramsden told the Telegraph that the bank has been swamped with requests after New York futures prices surged above the London cash price.

The wait to withdraw bullion stored at the bank has risen from a few days to between four and eight weeks, sources told the Financial Times.

“Gold is a physical asset, so there are real logistical constraints and security constraints,” said Ramsden. “You know getting into the bank for me this morning was a bit trickier because there was a lorry in the bullion yard,” he said. “It takes time and the stuff is also quite heavy as you know.”

The logistical nightmares don’t stop there.

The bullion is shuttled to the airport in London by security firms in high-strength vans. But because the Comex commodity exchange in New York, where the gold will be housed, requires a different size of bar, the gold must first be sent to Swiss refiners to recast it before flying on to the U.S.

The recast gold is often then loaded into the cargo holds of commercial passenger flights, the cheapest and safest way to transport the valuable commodity across the Atlantic, says the WSJ.

Since Trump’s election in November, 393 metric tonnes of gold have been moved into the Comex vaults in New York, pushing its inventory up by 75 per cent, sources told the Financial Times.

The actual amount going into the United States is probably higher than that, market participants told the FT, because shipments are also likely going to private vaults owned the two biggest players JPMorgan and HSBC.

New York prices may have further to climb. Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 gold price forecast to US$3,100 and UBS has hiked its to over US$3,200.

Gold was trading at US$2,927.70 this morning.

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Nuptials in China have caught the eye of economists and the trend doesn’t bode well for the world’s second largest economy, whose population is aging fast.

As today’s chart shows, the number of marriages in China fell by a fifth last year, the biggest drop on record that more than wiped out gains after the zero-COVID policy was lifted in 2023. Half as many weddings took place in China in 2024 than a decade ago.

The decline is party explained by a fall in the number of young adults, says Capital Economics, but it’s also important that fewer of them are willing to take the plunge into matrimony.

The number of marriages per thousand women aged 20-39 is now lower than in Japan and converging with Korea.

“This doesn’t bode well for China’s demographic outlook. In China and elsewhere in East Asia, births outside marriage are extremely rare,” said the economists.

The decline comes as Beijing is trying to encourage more births to counter its rapidly ageing population. The government has promised greater financial support, but the lesson from other countries is that “throwing money at the problem” isn’t the answer, they said.

“The diminishing appeal of marriage and children reflects complex cultural and technological shifts that the government has little control over.”

• Statistics Canada releases its latest reading for inflation today when it publishes its consumer price index for January. The annual inflation rate was 1.8 per cent in December, down from 1.9 per cent in November.
• Today’s Data: Existing home sales
• Earnings: RioCan Real Estate Investment, Dream Industrial Real Estate, Gibson Energy Inc.

• How Trump is pouring gas on the fire of deglobalization
  
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Financial resolutions are one tool families can use to take control of their money, said personal finance expert Kelley Keehn. But sticking to them requires a roadmap.

Families thinking about financial resolutions should start by defining their goals — whether it’s travelling, buying a home or having a child — before digging further into their financial status, such as assets, debts and net worth, she said.

Find out more about strategies that will help get your finances back on track.

Calling Canadian families with younger kids or teens: Whether it’s budgeting, spending, investing, paying off debt, or just paying the bills, does your family have any financial resolutions for the coming year? Let us know at wealth@postmedia.com.

McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

Financial Post on YouTube

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven, with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

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